Question: Consider the following statements in reference to a report published by the Lancet on population scenarios:
(1) India will be the largest working-age population in the world by 2100.
(2) The global Total Fertility Rate is forecasted to be 1•66 in 2100.
(3) USA will be the country with the largest immigration in 2100.
Of the above correct statement/s is/are:
(a) Only 1,2
(b) Only 2,3
(c) Only 1,3
(d) All of the above
Answer: (d)
Related facts:
- According to a study published by the Lancet on July 14 2020, India will be the world’s most populous country in 2100.
- India’s population is forecasted to peak in 2048 at around 1.6 billion, up from 1.38 billion in 2017.
- This waygoing will be followed by a 32 per cent decline to around 1.09 billion in 2100.
- The five largest countries in 2100 to be India, Nigeria, China, the USA, and Pakistan.
- India will become the fourth largest economy in 2030,sliding up to number three in 2050 and 2100.
- The number of working-age adults (20–64 years) in India is projected to fall from around 748 million in 2017 to around 578 million in 2100.
- However, this will be the largest working-age population in the world by 2100.
- In the mid-2020s, India is expected to surpass China’s workforce population (950 million in 2017, and 357 million in 2100).
World Findings:
- The global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9•73 billion people and decline to 8•79 billion in 2100.
- 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100.
- China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098.
Report on Immigration:
- The countries with the largest immigration forecasts in absolute numbers in 2100 were the USA, India, and China.
- Whereas emigration was forecasted to be largest in Somalia, the Philippines, and Afghanistan.
Total Fertility Rate:
- India reached a TFR lower than replacement level in 2018.
- Thereafter, India was forecasted to have a continued steep decline until about 2040, reaching a TFR of 1•29 in 2100.
- The global TFR was forecasted to be 1•66 in 2100.
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) lower than 2.1 leads to a decline in a country’s population.
Mortality:
- Among the ten countries with the largest populations in 2017 or 2100, China, Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, the USA, and Nigeria were forecasted to have the highest life expectancies in 2100.
- DR Congo, Pakistan, India, and Indonesia were forecasted to have the lowest life expectancies.
- India is projected to have one of the lowest life expectancies (79.3 years in 2100, up from 69.1 in 2017).
Reason behind population decline:
- Continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth.
By-Amar Mani Upadhyay
Links:
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930677-2
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/indias-population-to-peak-in-2048-at-1-6-bn-to-decline-to-1-09-bn-in-2100-the-lancet-6506286/